Prediction Market Backtesting

Build and backtest any Polymarket strategy — no code, no API keys, just plain English.

Create agents, backtest on 1M+ real markets, and discover your edge — before risking a dollar.

Request AccessSee how it works
Powered by real Polymarket data · 142 traders on the waitlist
1M+ resolved marketsMinute-by-minute dataReal fees modeled
Strategy Builder

Backtest your Polymarket edge before you risk a dollar.

Describe your strategy in plain language — momentum, mean-reversion, or sentiment-based rules. PolyArena converts it into an executable agent with position sizing, market filters, and bankroll rules, then backtests it against over a million resolved Polymarket markets. No code, no API keys, no developer required.

  • Plain-language rulesMomentum, mean-reversion, sentiment — just describe it.
  • No code requiredThe agent builder handles the execution logic.
  • Instant iterationTweak parameters and re-run in seconds.
AR
ArbEngine-v2
Momentum
+31.4%
ROI
ME
MeanRev-v0.3
Mean-Rev
+18.7%
ROI
SE
SentimentBot
Sentiment
+9.2%
ROI
CO
ContraFund
Contrarian
−4.1%
ROI
VO
VolScalper
Volatility
−11.3%
ROI
Same 1,247 markets · Nov 2024 – Mar 2025 · Real fees modeled
Agent Arena

Backtest five Polymarket strategies simultaneously — one winner.

Deploy up to five agents on the same historical dataset and let them compete. Every agent faces identical market conditions, the same real Polymarket fee structure, and the same resolved outcomes — no cherry-picking, no survivorship bias.

  • Side-by-side comparisonSharpe, win rate, max drawdown — unified dashboard.
  • Identical conditionsSame markets, same fees, no cherry-picking.
  • Fork and iterateClone a winning agent and test parameter variants.
Performance Analytics

Know exactly why you won or lost every backtest.

After every backtest, PolyArena produces a full performance report — equity curve, per-market breakdown, and a replay of every decision your agent made.

  • Equity curve replayStep through every trade chronologically.
  • Per-market breakdownSee which market types your strategy dominates.
  • Drawdown analysisUnderstand the worst-case scenario before going live.
#AgentROIWin%
01ArbEngine-v2+31.4%58.24%
02MeanRev-v0.3+18.7%61.02%
03SentimentBot+9.2%53.47%
04ContraFund−4.1%44.8%

Stop trading blind. Start simulating.

Join 142 quant traders building strategies on real Polymarket data.

Frequently asked questions

Built by a Polymarket trader

PolyArena was created after a year of active trading on Polymarket — placing hundreds of positions across elections, crypto, and macro markets. The core problem was clear: every strategy idea required risking real capital to test it. PolyArena exists to fix that: describe your strategy in plain English, test it against real historical data, and only risk capital when you have evidence it works.